After talks failed in Alaska, US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have chosen Hungary as the next destination to discuss a possible end to the Ukraine conflict. However, the choice of place for this meeting of the two leaders has become a topic of discussion. In principle, considering Putin guilty of war crimes, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against him.
For this reason he should be arrested as soon as he reaches Hungary. But, the chances of such a spectacle happening are slim. Before then, the Kremlin will have to overcome a number of practical and legal hurdles, as well as sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU), to find a way to get Putin to Budapest.
Why the uproar over Putin’s visit to Hungary?
At the center of the issue is a warrant issued by the ICC in 2023, ordering Putin’s arrest for alleged war crimes and the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children during the war. But, ICC has no power to arrest, because it does not have any police force or any agency. The enforcement of ICC arrest warrants fundamentally depends on the cooperation of its member states.
Based on this, Hungary and its neighboring countries, including Serbia and Romania, are technically obliged to arrest the Russian President if his plane enters their airspace. Because these countries are members of ICC. Germany has already requested Hungary to arrest Putin. However, seeing Putin handcuffed and behind bars remains a distant dream.
Hungary is a signatory to the 1998 Rome Treaty, which established the ICC. But Prime Minister Viktor Orban has recently decided to withdraw from the ICC. The process of Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC began in April, but the entire process took a year to be implemented. Thus, technically, Hungary can still arrest Putin.
Will Hungary arrest Putin?
This probability is very low, because Viktor Orban has not only been donald trump Not only are they allies of Russia, they also have close relations with Russia. Hungary has assured Putin’s safety, and cited the April visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, another leader wanted for war crimes. Over the past few days, Orban has spoken to both Trump and Putin and has begun laying the groundwork for this high-profile meeting.
In fact, Orban has claimed that Budapest is ‘the only place in Europe where such a meeting can be held’. For Orban, whose party has been in power for 15 years, the summit provides an opportunity to distract from domestic pressures caused by high food prices and a deteriorating economy. A look at history shows that only a few leaders have surrendered to the ICC, including former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and former Liberian President Charles Taylor.
Risk for Putin
If Putin agrees to visit Hungary to meet Trump, it would be his first visit to an EU country since the war began nearly four years ago. However, going to Budapest is risky for them. The Kremlin has also maintained silence and said that many questions still remain to be resolved before the Hungary meeting. Since the ICC arrest warrant, Putin has limited his international travels.
It was easy for Putin to fly to Alaska for the meeting with Trump in August this year, as the Russian leader did not have to use the airspace of any hostile country. But the direct route to Budapest passes through the airfields of hostile countries. Due to EU sanctions on Moscow, Russian aircraft are banned from landing and flying in the airspace of EU member states, including Hungary. However, EU member states have always made exceptions.
The question is whether the EU countries, which stand strongly with Ukraine, will support that leader (Vladimir Putin) whom he has tried to isolate and attack on every global platform? On the other hand, not doing so would be a bad sign as it could be seen as an obstacle to peace in Ukraine. There is no doubt that this is a dilemma for the European Union.
Which route can Putin take to Hungary?
Now, let us come to the question of which route Putin can take to Budapest. The shortest route from Moscow to Budapest, which takes about three hours, is also the most dangerous as it passes through Belarus and western Ukraine. Flying over Ukrainian airspace is strictly prohibited, as it is an active war zone. The use of this airspace will not be safe at all for Putin, because the possibility of an attack on him cannot be ruled out. Another possibility is that Putin travels through Slovakia and travels a five-hour route through Belarus and Poland before reaching Hungary.
Although Belarus has warm relations with Russia, Poland may prove to be a thorn in the side. Poland, which has historically had tense relations with Russia, is a member of NATO and a supporter of the ICC. Recently, following a Russian drone intrusion into Polish airspace, Warsaw warned Moscow not to complain if its aircraft was shot down in NATO territory. Slovakia, one of the major buyers of Russian energy, is unlikely to cause any problems for Putin.
The third option, and the most practical one, is an 8-hour route through Türkiye, which has been sympathetic to both Russia and the West. Then flying over Greece and crossing the Mediterranean Sea and the Adriatic Sea to reach Hungary. Putin will then have to move north, passing through ICC and NATO ally Montenegro and entering Serbia. Despite Western pressure, Serbia has been one of Russia’s few allies in Europe.
In fact, Netanyahu had taken a similar route during his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last month, avoiding several European countries. Thus, the US will need to strategically plan and motivate its NATO allies to ensure a smooth path for Putin.
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