Nitish Kumar is a name in the politics of Bihar, who has been at the center of power for the last two decades. Before the 2025 assembly elections, NDA has finalized the seat-sharing on October 12. JD(U) and BJP have got 101-101 seats, LJP(RV) 29, HAM and RLM have got 6-6 seats. There is nothing special in this seat sharing except that BJP and JDU are getting equal number of seats. Till now, even if it is symbolic, JDU’s seats have been more than BJP’s.
This is the reason why the general public is assessing on social media whether Janata Dal or Nitish Kumar That Bade Bhai’s role has come to an end. People say that BJP has given tickets to NDA people as per its wish. It is obvious that after the results of Bihar Assembly elections, JDU will remain a hanger-on of BJP. But it is not that easy. If Nitish Kumar remains healthy, then there is no one in NDA nor in the Grand Alliance to challenge his position. It is clear that if NDA gets majority in the assembly elections, then Nitish Kumar’s position can be said to be safe.
1- Transferring Nitish Kumar’s core vote to BJP forever.
Nitish Kumar’s core vote bank—Kurmis (4%), Koeri (6%), and other EBCs (27%)—is the backbone of the NDA in Bihar politics. In 2020, JD(U) won 43 seats, but their vote share (15%) was a significant part of the NDA’s total vote share of 37%. BJP’s own vote (23%) is limited to the upper caste and urban middle class.
If we pay attention to Nitish Kumar’s age, then this could be his last political innings. BJP knows that as long as Nitish Kumar is strong, JDU will exist. If Nitish Kumar stays away from the day-to-day politics of the party due to health reasons, the party will disintegrate. In such a situation, their core voters like EBC and Mahadalit voters may shift towards Grand Alliance (RJD + Congress) or Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj. It is obvious that it will be forever difficult for BJP to conquer Bihar again. This is the reason why BJP will never leave Nitish Kumar.
2. Question of reduced credibility among BJP’s allies in UP and Jharkhand etc.
The question of credibility of BJP in its relations with allies further strengthens Nitish’s position in Bihar. In UP in 2022, BJP created tension with Apna Dal and Nishad Party by giving them less seats. BJP suffered losses in 2019 due to the breaking of alliance with AJSU and JMM in Jharkhand. BJP cannot take such a risk with Nitish in Bihar.
If BJP tries to remove Nitish from the post of CM after winning the elections, then its message will affect the EBC votes along with allies in states like UP and Jharkhand. Its allies have already been viewing BJP with suspicion. If Nitish Kumar is not made the CM then the message will be sent that BJP has cheated in Bihar. By making Nitish the CM, BJP would like to send a message to its allies that it follows ‘coalition dharma’. In 2020, despite JD(U) having 43 seats, Nitish was made the CM because BJP needed Nitish. The same strategy will remain in 2025 also.
3. Less seats, but Nitish is the ‘balancing point’ of NDA
Nitish Kumar is the ‘balancing point’ for NDA. Caste equations and social alliances are important in the politics of Bihar. Nitish’s Kurmi-EBC-Mahadalit vote bank gives the NDA a balance which the BJP cannot achieve alone. In 2020, JD(U) had 43 seats, but Nitish’s credibility gave NDA 125 seats. Even if JD(U)’s seats are reduced, Nitish’s credibility and his role in the alliance will give majority to NDA. HAM’s Jitan Ram Manjhi said that without Nitish, the balance of NDA will deteriorate. Nitish’s fewer seats may put BJP under pressure, but replacing him with another CM will destabilize the NDA.
4. There is no face worthy of becoming Chief Minister in Bihar BJP
There is no face in Bihar BJP who can replace Nitish. Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Sinha neither have the wide acceptance of Nitish, nor the ability to attract EBC-Mahadalit votes. BJP’s vote bank (23%) is limited to upper caste (Bhumihar, Rajput) and urban middle class. No BJP leader is acceptable in entire Bihar like Nitish.
Some people are giving the example of Maharashtra. It is being said that just as Devendra Fadnavis was made the CM by making Eknath Shinde the Deputy CM, something similar can happen in Bihar. But Nitish Kumar is neither Eknath Shinde nor does BJP have any Devendra Fadnavis in Bihar.
A user asked in a poll on X, who is the CM of BJP after Nitish? 60% said, none. If BJP replaces Nitish Kumar and brings its own CM, then EBC and women voters (50%) may get dispersed. 30/40 seats of NDA in 2024 Lok Sabha came with the help of Nitish. In Nitish’s absence, Tejashwi Yadav’s ‘youth’ image and ‘job’ slogan can harm NDA.
5. Fear of Nitish’s Paltimar history
Nitish’s ‘Paltimar’ history scares BJP. 2013 (separate from BJP), 2015 (with RJD), 2017 (back in NDA), 2022 (with grand alliance). Nitish again returned to NDA in 2024, and has said many times that there is no turning back now. But BJP knows that if Nitish does not get the post of CM, then he can go with the Grand Alliance. And the Grand Alliance will happily agree for this.
Even before this, the Grand Alliance had made Nitish Kumar the Chief Minister despite having less MLAs. A user on X writes that the fear of Nitish’s reversal forces BJP to keep Nitish as CM. In 2022, Nitish shocked BJP by joining the Grand Alliance. Along with this, if JD(U)’s seats are reduced to 20-30, and BJP does not make Nitish the CM, then it can also break the alliance.
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