Now three weeks are left for Bihar assembly elections. Tomorrow i.e. Friday is the last day for the first phase of nomination. But due to the uproar over seat distribution in the Grand Alliance, everything is still in a mess. The issue of seat sharing between RJD-Congress-Left Party-VIP is so entangled that the grand alliance is on the verge of breaking.
Those who call themselves Son of Mallah have come to its center point. Mukesh SahniVikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) founder Sahni and RJD have agreed to make Tejashwi Yadav the CM face, but Sahni’s demands (20+ seats and Deputy CM post) have shaken the alliance. Sahni was scheduled to do PC on Thursday afternoon. It is understood that he is playing a game of pressure politics. Because at 12 o’clock they postponed the PC to 4 o’clock. It’s almost six o’clock but still waiting for his PC.
The question arises whether this is just a pressure tactic or Sahni will really spoil Tejashwi’s ‘game’. Will he become a vote cutter for NDA (BJP-JDU) by breaking the alliance? Let’s analyze from data, history and recent events.
Background of Mukesh Sahni and VIP?
Mukesh Sahni comes from Nishad community and is an emerging extremely backward leader of Bihar. VIP (formed in 2020) mainly represents fishermen castes like Nishad, Mallah, Kevat (4-5% population in Bihar). Sahni is known as ‘Missile Manjpur’, who has given 4 seats to VIP by joining NDA in 2020 elections. But when Nitish joined the grand alliance in 2022, Sahni joined RJD. In the 2024 Lok Sabha, VIP contested 5 seats for the Grand Alliance, but could not win any seat. However, his vote bank improved compared to the last Lok Sabha elections. Sahni’s style is aggressive: he praises Lalu-Tejashwi, but emphasizes his ‘Nishad identity’.
Sahni’s insistence on seat sharing: After the election announcement, there was a consensus on seat sharing in the Grand Alliance (RJD: 135, Congress: 61, VIP: 16), but Sahni has rejected it. Sahni wants 20-60 seats, VIP got only 11 in the last elections. RJD has offered 18 but the condition is that there will be RJD candidates on some seats to whom Sahani can give his symbol. However, it is being said that Tejashwi has bluntly said that accept 15, otherwise remain independent.
Sahni openly said that Tejashwi will become the CM, I will be the deputy. This has been said in front of Tejashwi. Sahni argues that the MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation is incomplete without Nishad votes.
What is Sahni’s status in Bihar, how much vote bank does she have?
Mukesh Sahni considers his status as a ‘kingmaker’ in Bihar politics. But due to the limited vote bank of one’s own party, the risk of becoming ‘vote katwa’ is high. Sahni, founder of Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), is popular among the Nishad (fisherman) community. His bargaining for his party in the assembly elections has put both the Grand Alliance (RJD-Congress-Left) and the NDA (BJP-JDU) in tension.
In the 2020 Assembly, VIP contested 11 seats with NDA and won 4. Sahni himself had lost the election from Simri Bakhtiyarpur. Despite the defeat, he became a minister in the Nitish government but he resigned when Nitish joined the grand alliance in 2022. In the 2024 Lok Sabha, along with the Grand Alliance, it fielded its candidates in Gopalganj, Jhanjharpur, Motihari but lost the elections. Despite this, Sahni’s dominance is at its peak in 2025. From the beginning, VIP had demanded 60 seats and the post of Deputy CM in the Grand Alliance. However, now they have softened. We can also agree on 25-35 demands.
He is adamant on the post of Deputy CM, saying that Tejashwi CM, I am the Deputy CM candidate. It is a matter of happiness for Sahni that NDA still tempts him, because Nishad votes are part of EBC (36% population). His image is aggressive. He woos Nishads on social media. But he has been branded as an opportunist (from NDA to Grand Alliance, then back again).
How much penetration of Sahni among Nishad votes?
VIP has gained considerable influence among its communities in the riverine areas of North Bihar. On the basis of this, Sahani is ready to bargain with alliances. According to the Bihar Caste Survey of 2023, the Nishad community constitutes about 9.6% of the total population of the state. However, the share of Sahni, a sub-group of Mallah, is 2.6%. Apart from the boatmen, the Nishad community includes Bind, Manjhi, Kevat and Turha groups etc. Obviously, whichever alliance the Nishad community favors, its fortunes can shine in Muzaffarpur, East Champaran, Madhubani, Khagaria, Vaishali and some other districts of North Bihar.
VIP has gradually succeeded in garnering support from other sub-groups of its community as well. This was the reason why BJP gave him 11 seats in 2020. Another reason that makes NDA attractive for Sahni is the lackluster performance of VIPs in the Grand Alliance. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, VIP had contested on three seats – Muzaffarpur, Khagaria and Madhubani – and lost on all three. Sahni himself lost from Khagaria to LJP’s Mehboob Ali Qaiser by 2.5 lakh votes.
VIP again contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as an ally of the Grand Alliance and the results were slightly better. Sahni’s party again lost the three seats it had contested from East Champaran, Jhanjharpur and Gopalganj, but its total vote share increased from 1.66% in 2019 to 2.71%.
Secondly, by staying with NDA, he can be established as the leader of Nishads in Bihar. Like Sanjay Nishad has made his place in UP. However, many parties have now joined the NDA, so it cannot be said that they will get the desired seats there too.
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